Monday, November 3, 2008

Spookiest State Polls of the Day (Take One): Minnesota and Montana

In an earlier blog entry, I discussed the wide variation among the results of the latest national polls. Now, state polling data from Minnesota and Montana also show peculiar results.

Survey USA, a highly accurate and reputable pollster, released a poll today which shows Obama leading McCain in Minnesota by only 3 points. Because the lead fits within the margin of error, the race is statistically tied. Furthermore, because 2% of voters report being undecided, the Minnesota race is truly a tossup if this poll is accurate.

Moving to the West, the latest release from Public Policy Polling shows Obama with a one-point lead over McCain. The results of this poll also lie within the margin of error. In this poll, Obama receives a tremendous boost from early and younger voters. Among election-day voters, McCain has a sizable lead.

The Minnesota poll is consistent with an IBD-TIPP poll which, contrary to most other surveys, shows McCain closing in or leading in the Midwest, while the Montana results, if correct, would substantiate Obama's claim of success in the West. Although conventional wisdom predicts a landslide victory for Democrats, the race could actually end up as a thriller.

No comments:

Real Time Analytics